Polymarket Insider Trading Generated $2.4 Million Profit on Military Contracts
Digital detectives from data analytics firm Bubblemaps have identified nine Polymarket accounts that have profited more than $2.4 million exclusively on trades related to U.S. military action. This is a potential case of insider trading on military contracts.
These anonymous accounts executed successful trades on specific dates of the conflict with Iran, including the first U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran’s supreme leader, and an announcement of a ceasefire.
Here’s the key takeaway: on more than 80 specific trades, the accounts had a 98% win rate, despite some trades having a low probability.
CEO of Bubblemaps, Nicolas Vaiman, shared these findings with 60 Minutes and stated, “This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far.”
In total, more than $1 billion has been traded on military decisions and outcomes this year. This new ability to trade on war outcomes has created a concern about insider trading. However, the insider trading may lead to more precise information and could benefit users.
Examples of Recent Insider Trading on Military Contracts
A U.S. Army soldier was recently indicted for using classified information to win trades. Then, 60 Minutes investigated how insiders may be using nonpublic information for an edge on prediction markets.
This is a developing space for lawmakers, who don’t have a lot of experience investigating insider trading on military contracts. The good news is that trades on Polymarket are public, which allows companies like Bubblemaps to research trades while the traders themselves are anonymous.
Polymarket’s official position is that insider trading is not welcome.
How Traders Defied Odds with War Trades
Currently, the U.S. prohibits military trading or betting on platforms such as Polymarket. However, it’s easy to find a way around with options such as VPNs. That’s the leading theory for how Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke made his insider trades on military contracts on the special operations mission to capture Nicolas Maduro. (Note: Van Dyke pleaded not guilty last month to federal charges.)
Those trades, roughly $34,000 in volume, netted more than $400,000 in profit. Van Dyke immediately withdrew the profit and tried to delete his Polymarket account. Through all of this, Polymarket has cooperated with law enforcement.
Bubblemaps’ head of investigations claims military bets are ripe for corruption with so many individuals involved in the planning — which opens the door to numerous potential insiders.
Another firm analyzing prediction market trading, Anti-Corruption Data Collective, investigated long-shot trades on military markets. Transactions exceeding $2,500 with less than 35% probability of winning often won more than they lost. This report indicated systemic insider trading on military contracts.
War Trading Arouses Suspicion on Commodities Markets
New York lawyer and former commodities trader David Kovel is wary of trades this year on commodities markets. A key date for this was March 23, after the operation in Iran had been going for more than three weeks. More than $800 million was placed on oil prices dropping. Fifteen minutes later, President Trump posted on Truth Social about productive conversations to end the conflict, which sent oil prices plummeting more than 10%.
Kovel believes insider trading was a natural conclusion to draw from these transactions.
What Prediction Markets Have Done About Insider Trading
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, CFTC, oversees prediction markets and regulates food prices. It used to be a commission of five, but is now led by one person. The staffing cuts since 2024 may be a reason for the uptick in insider trading on military markets and other “unethical” trades. This insider trading could have national security implications and put people’s lives at risk. Bubblemaps’ head of investigations is worried these irregular trades could be used by enemies of the U.S. to make war plans and develop their own strategy.