Politics: Prediction Market Guide

Political betting is on the precipice of the mainstream, reshaping how the public understands and engages with the electoral process. Journalists, analysts, and even presidential campaigns are turning to the best prediction markets to find out what’s happening in real-time.

Whether you’re a political wonk or an aspiring political gambler, you can find much more than just the U.S. presidential race. Across the three biggest prediction markets — Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt — if there’s something you want to bet on, chances are you can find it.

How Political Prediction Markets Work

Political prediction markets operate on a simple concept: contracts trade between $0 and $1, where the price reflects the market’s implied probability of an event occurring. If you buy a contract at $0.60, the market is saying there’s roughly a 60% chance that outcome happens.

This guide covers everything you need to know about political prediction markets, from how they work to the best platforms for trading on elections, legislation, and geopolitical events.

Best Platforms for Political Trading

The three major platforms for political prediction markets are Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt. Each has its own strengths — Polymarket offers the deepest liquidity and widest selection, Kalshi provides CFTC-regulated contracts legal in the US, and PredictIt has the longest track record in political markets.