FIFA World Cup: Americans Will Trade $2.5B in Prediction Markets
The FIFA World Cup is just hours away from its official kickoff. As the national teams arrive across North America, traders worldwide are actively analyzing and predicting the outcome of soccer’s most prestigious tournament.
Prediction markets are set to take center stage, with financial analysts projecting that the World Cup will drive more than $2.5 billion in cumulative trading volume across major platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. But what is the significance of these numbers for the future of the industry?
The FIFA World Cup Dynamics
A recent forecast from analytics platform DeFi Rate concluded that Americans will trade more than $2.5 billion on the FIFA World Cup across prediction markets, clearly surpassing March Madness and Super Bowl LX.
The analysis also reveals how this massive capital will flow: the vast majority of the money is expected to concentrate on individual game outcomes, markets that are notoriously volatile as they react in real time to live match data. A goal, a red card, or an injury can drastically impact a contract almost immediately.
Furthermore, the forecast specified that 90% of the trading volume will occur on the day the matches are played.
The Kalshi and Polymarket Shift
High-profile events such as the World Cup attract a wide variety of participants, from experienced traders looking for profitable positions to casual retail users who simply want to back their expectations with capital. With the United States serving as the primary host, the American public is poised for a historic level of participation, both in terms of stadium attendance and platform trading.
According to a recent survey conducted by SEON, almost half of those planning on betting on the World Cup will do so at a prediction market. Out of nearly six hundred U.S. adults surveyed regarding their tournament plans, 43% expressed a likelihood to wager, and 19% of those respondents explicitly stated that they would use prediction markets.
A press release announcing the survey results stated: “The data suggests that major sporting events are accelerating the adoption of prediction markets beyond their early-adopter base, particularly among younger bettors who are comfortable moving across multiple platform types.”
High Profile Markets vs. Niche Contracts
Currently, the leading World Cup Winner contract on Polymarket has amassed a staggering volume of over $1.7 billion, with Spain and France as the heavy favorites to take home the golden trophy. Meanwhile, the USMNT is serving as a massive domestic volume driver, with almost $50 million in trading activity, much of it placed on No contracts that offer an almost locked-in alternative to park capital until the end of the tournament.
But trading on the champion merely scratches the surface, as the high liquidity of prediction markets allows traders to engage in a variety of markets, including group winners and even the number of hat tricks that will be scored during the tournament.
On Polymarket, there is even a “Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?” contract that is gaining traction as the tournament draws near. For it to resolve to Yes, El Bicho must visibly weep on the field or in the bench area; crying in the locker room or other areas will not count.
In case you are wondering, most traders currently believe that the Portuguese superstar will indeed shed tears during the competition.
What’s In Store for Prediction Markets?
This historic surge arrives amidst ongoing political and legal debates regarding the regulation of prediction platforms across the U.S. While some states argue that event contracts should fall under the same regulatory laws that apply to traditional sportsbooks, the Trump administration heavily supports the federal regulation centered around the Commodity Futures Trading (CFTC), a framework that allows prediction markets to grow at an unprecedented rate.
Ultimately, besides the team that lifts the trophy on the afternoon of Sunday, July 19, prediction markets are set to emerge as true winners of the FIFA World Cup, not only in terms of record-breaking trading volume, but also because of the popularization and mainstream acceptance of the platforms.