Report: Campaign Staffers Profiting from Private Data

A recent report highlights the fear of insider trading in prediction markets as new evidence suggests campaign operatives are leveraging non-public information for financial gain.

An investigation by NPR has uncovered that campaign staffers are increasingly treating these platforms like a personal ATM, placing high-stakes trades on their own candidates before internal data or polls are made public.

The scoop highlights a glaring loophole in the “unsettled legal landscape” of event contracts, where those with the most intimate knowledge of a race can “buy low” on a candidate’s odds before a positive news cycle drives the price up.

“Foolish Not to Bet”

According to the NPR report, one anonymous staffer working on a statewide campaign in the South admitted to making thousands of dollars by front-running public polls. The staffer described a system where they would receive tips on unreleased polling data and compare them against the current odds on platforms like Polymarket and PredictIt.

“Because you have all this information and knowledge that isn’t publicly available yet, it’s almost foolish not to bet on it before it’s made public,” the staffer told NPR.

The practice appears to be widespread. The same source claimed that trading among fellow staffers was “commonplace” across multiple campaigns. By purchasing “event contracts” — which function as shares in a specific outcome — at 20 cents (a 20% implied probability) and selling them once a public poll boosted those odds to 50 or 60 cents, staffers are effectively engaging in political insider trading.

Kalshi and Regulators Strike Back

Kalshi, the first CFTC-regulated exchange to offer election trading in the U.S., has made its stance clear: this behavior is a violation of federal law. According to Kalshi’s Insider Trading Policy, the exchange strictly prohibits any trading based on “material non-public information.”

The platform has already begun aggressive enforcement. In recent weeks, Kalshi reportedly banned and fined a handful of political candidates who attempted to trade on their own races.

“It’s illegal or a violation of the Commodity Exchange Act if you have material, non-public information and you have a duty not to use that,” Jeff Le Riche, a former CFTC trial lawyer, told NPR.

A Pattern of Regulation

This revelation comes on the heels of several major moves to restrict prediction market activity among government insiders. As previously reported by PredictionPro:

• Senate Ban: Earlier this month, the U.S. Senate unanimously voted to ban members and their staff from trading on prediction markets, citing the need to prevent even the “perception” of a conflict of interest.

• Integrity Concerns: The rapid rise of these markets has long been flagged as a potential problem for political stability, with critics arguing that financial incentives could distort the democratic process.

• Sports Parallels: The controversy mirrors the NBA’s recent demands for stricter CFTC oversight. Professional leagues have warned that “exotic” contracts and insider access pose a fundamental threat to the integrity of competitions—whether on the court or at the ballot box.