NFL Draft Prediction Markets Take Wild Ride In First Round

When the Tennessee Titans drafted Carnell Tate at No. 4 overall, it looked as if that would be the biggest stunner of Thursday night’s first round.

NFL Draft prediction markets certainly didn’t see that coming.

But then at the No. 13 pick, the Los Angeles Rams said, “Hold my beer.” Shockingly, the Rams drafted Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson, who was expected to go late first round/early second round at best.

A few more picks were also surprising, in a wild first round for NFL Draft prediction markets.

Market Volatility

Early and Often

The surprises actually began with the No. 2 overall pick. Throughout Thursday afternoon/early Thursday evening, Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese was a surging favorite.

At 8:19 p.m. ET, right before the pick, Reese was 65% in Kalshi’s NFL Draft prediction market to go No. 2 overall. That correlates to a -186 favorite.

Moments later, Reese’s price dropped to zero, while Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey surged from 33% to 100%. Indeed, Bailey went No. 2 overall to the New York Jets.

Then came the No. 4 choice. Tate was trading at 4% (+2400) moments before the Tennessee Titans made the pick. The Ohio State wideout then blasted to 100%.

The Kansas City Chiefs then moved from No. 9 to No. 6 in a trade with the Cleveland Browns. LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane, trading at 2% (+4900) to go sixth just before the pick was made, went to K.C.

But the No. 13 pick caught everyone off guard.

QB Or Not QB?

Simpson’s Over/Under on draft position was 29.5. The Arizona Cardinals were thought to be the best possible suitor, perhaps willing to trade up from No. 34 to get the Alabama standout late in the first round.

Instead, the Rams made Simpson the 13th overall pick, way ahead of schedule. Interestingly, about an hour before the pick, Simpson moved from 11% to 34% to be the 13th pick. But 25 minutes before the pick, he tumbled to 7% (+1329).

Then Simpson rebounded to 58% with 15 minutes until the pick, en route to 99% a few minutes later, just before Los Angeles made it official.

The Simpson pick also settled another popular prop on NFL Draft prediction markets: Over/Under 2+ QBs drafted in the first round. Over 2+ was favored all week long at Kalshi and was at 89% (-809) as the Draft began.

Thirty minutes later, the Over receded to 61%, and it was at 66% before shooting to 99% moments ahead of Simpson being selected by the Rams.

Top Props

The No. 2 overall pick drew the highest trading volume of any NFL Draft prop at Kalshi, at $6.01 million. That was more than double the second-highest volume, $2.68 million on the No. 1 overall pick.

After being favored to go No. 2 overall, Reese ultimately fell to the No. 5 pick and the New York Giants. However, that helped gin up a lot of late interest in the No. 5 prop, which saw volume of $2.33 million, third-highest at Kalshi.

The No. 3 pick was fourth in volume at $2.30 million, and the No. 4 pick was fifth at $2.11 million.

For clarity: Prediction market trading volume is not equivalent to sportsbook handle. Alex Kane, CEO of SportTrade, estimates that handle on prediction market props such as the NFL Draft – ostensibly futures offerings – is 20% of volume on the high end.

So that $6.01 million of volume on the No. 2 pick would translate to $1.2 million in handle.