Michael Selig, Trump-era Wall Street Regulator, Fights for Prediction Markets

Michael Selig, the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, is fighting to keep prediction markets within the CFTC. Selig, a Wall Street Regulator, is going to bat against lawmakers, states, and several 2028 presidential candidates.

On prediction markets, users can predict outcomes like U.S. elections, major sports events, or the fate of a congressional stock. These platforms have operated in the United States under the oversight of the CFTC.

However, their expanding presence in sports has triggered strong reactions from states that regulate or prohibit traditional sports gambling, including sportsbooks and casinos. This has created a divide between Michael Selig, the CFTC, iGaming professionals, and lawmakers.

Risks Claimed by State Lawmakers

The possibility of insider trading in prediction markets raises eyebrows among representatives from both Republican and Democratic lawmakers. In response, two of the most popular prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, have recently introduced new safeguards to prevent such abuses.

Other states and lawmakers have grown concerned with the morality of these topics, as some of the available markets include:

• Deaths
• Catastrophes
• Natural Disasters
• War
• Economic Issues

Overall, many critics argue that prediction market platforms function as gambling operations and should therefore fall under state jurisdiction.

Selig’s Argument for Prediction Markets

The Wall Street regulator argues that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission should serve as the primary overseer of emerging prediction market platforms in the United States.

Additionally, Selig’s support for the markets has surprised many tenured CFTC officials and observers, who caution that his stance could undermine the agency’s credibility.

Critics of prediction markets, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who called Selig “a cowboy,” are on the other side of the spectrum.

Selig stated this in an interview with POLITICO:

“These are not casinos. These are not sportsbooks. They’re markets. The bottom line is, we’re going to defend our authority in court.”

The CFTC has recently filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to prevent these states from imposing new restrictions on prediction markets.

Selig will be testifying this week in front of the House Agriculture Committee.