California Governor’s Race: Polls vs Prediction Markets

Coverage of the 2026 California gubernatorial election is intensifying. Also known as the Governor’s Race, this high-stakes election will determine California’s next governor.

The non-partisan top-two primary will take place in June, and current Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom isn’t eligible to be re-elected.

However, if you’re trying to figure out who is in the lead, there have been constant discrepancies between the polls and what prediction markets — like Polymarket and Kalshi — are saying.

Polls vs. Prediction Markets in California Governor’s Race

In this gubernatorial race, polls and prediction markets have been confusing followers by predicting different candidates.

There are some projections that have two Republicans leading the race — Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco — with a crowd of Democrats filling the rest of the pool. However, there are other calculated projections that show Hilton in front with a Democratic representative closely behind.

According to Kalshi, there’s an over 80% chance that a Democratic congressperson will become the next Governor of California. These are the Democrats with the highest trade percentages on Kalshi:

Tom Steyer – 55%
Katie Porter – 17%
Matt Mahan – 15%

_{These percentages are subject to change.}

In other news, recent reports indicate that former Democratic frontrunner Eric Swalwell has withdrawn from the California gubernatorial race following assault allegations that impacted his campaign.

Do Prediction Markets Impact the Polls?

The betting activity surrounding California’s gubernatorial race suggests that prediction markets may reveal insights that current polling cannot.

With pollsters under continued scrutiny for perceived inaccuracies, some are questioning whether prediction markets might provide a more reliable method for forecasting elections than traditional polls.

On the contrary, some professionals believe that prediction market apps are impacting the polls by giving everyone the ability to trade on chance for real money.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has joined a growing number of politicians concerned about insider trading on prediction markets. He issued an executive order that prohibits state officials from using privileged information to place bets on these platforms.