Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup?
“Soccer is a simple game; 22 men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win,” the great English striker turned broadcaster Gary Lineker famously said in 1990, after his national team was eliminated on penalties in the semifinals by the eventual champions. Thirty-six years have passed since that moment, and those who believe Germany will keep winning are now in the minority — at least on Kalshi.
With the new World Cup just around the corner, the market on who will lift the trophy is remarkably tight, though two powerhouse teams have emerged as the clear frontrunners. The odds will fluctuate day by day once the ball starts rolling in the opening match on June 11 and the results begin to pour in.
2026 World Cup Kalshi Predictions
Forecasts for this World Cup — whether from traditional sportsbooks, prediction markets, or even AI — consistently point to Spain and France as the favorites. Kalshi is no exception.
France leads the pack with approximately a 17% chance. Les Bleus were crowned world champions in 2018 and finished as runners-up in 2022. Guided by the seasoned leadership of Didier Deschamps — heading into his third consecutive World Cup as manager — and powered by the goal-scoring prowess of Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé, the French squad possesses more than enough depth to celebrate once again.
On their heels is Spain, sitting at nearly identical odds. As the reigning Euro champions and Nations League runners-up, they boast one of the world’s most formidable rosters, featuring star power across the pitch with the likes of Lamine Yamal, Nico Williams, Pedri, Dani Olmo, and David Raya.
Five Teams Arriving with Championship Aspirations
Beyond the top two favorites, several other squads are traveling to the tournament in the United States, Canada, and Mexico with high hopes. Sitting third in Kalshi’s projections at around 11%, England marks the 60th anniversary of their sole World Cup title, won on home soil back in 1966.
Meanwhile, Portugal holds 9.6% odds; though they have never hoisted the World Cup trophy, their recent Nations League title and Cristiano Ronaldo’s hunger for glory in what will be his final World Cup provide plenty of reason for optimism.
South America, a continent that lives and breathes soccer, fields two major contenders in Argentina and Brazil, both holding roughly 8.5% odds. The Argentine squad is riding high after winning the last World Cup and back-to-back Copa América titles in what looks to be Lionel Messi’s “last dance.” On the other side, Brazil—the tournament’s only five-time champion—has traded a recent footballing crisis for renewed hope following the arrival of Carlo Ancelotti as manager.
Positioned a tier below at approximately 5.8%, Germany enters the tournament with an intriguing roster. The squad blends a new generation of established young stars like Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala with seasoned veterans like Manuel Neuer and Joshua Kimmich.
Is There Room for an Upset?
Occupying the 1% to 4% odds range is a cluster of dark horses looking to shock the world. This group includes the Netherlands (4%), a nation that has famously reached three finals without ever winning the title, and Norway (2.5%), which features arguably the best squad in its history, spearheaded by Erling Haaland.
The United States and Mexico (both at 1.3%) also fall into this underdog category, hoping to leverage home-field advantage to spark a deep run. Hosting can be a powerful catalyst—as seen when South Korea reached the semifinals in 2002—but history shows it is rarely enough on its own. One need only look back at Qatar, which suffered a group-stage exit as hosts in the last World Cup.
World Cup Winner Kalshi Odds
- France (17.1%)
- Spain (16.7%)
- England (10.9%)
- Portugal (9.6%)
- Argentina (8.7%)
- Brazil (8.5%)
- Germany (5.8%)
- Netherlands (4.1%)
- Norway (2.5%)
- Belgium (2%)