Prediction Market Apps Hit Record Volume, While Most Traders Are Losing

Prediction market apps have exploded in the past year, drawing traditional sportsbook users and new customers in states without sports betting. Last month, the total monthly volume between Kalshi and Polymarket hit $29.8 billion — a substantial 588% increase from just last year.

However, there’s a darker angle to the story. According to a new Wall Street Journal analysis of the platform data, more than 70% of Polymarket users are losing money.

Who Profits on Prediction Market Apps?

Polymarket has at least 2.3 million total accounts, and WSJ reviewed 1.6 million accounts that have been active since November 2022.

The analysis revealed that 0.1% of those accounts accounted for 67% of all profits. This equates to less than 2,000 accounts of those analyzed netting close to $500 million in profit.

Meanwhile, an average user is in the red between $1 and $100. Even worse, the bottom 10% of accounts lost an average of $4,000 each.

More academic studies concluded that 68.8% of Polymarket users have lost money while 1% of savvy traders accounted for 76.5% of total profits, from November 2022 to March 2026. Bloomberg added that more than 100,000 Polymarket accounts have lost at least $1,000 since January 2025.

The numbers aren’t better on Kalshi. Spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana recently stated losers outnumber winners by 2.9 to 1.

The WSJ sifted through 35,000 completed mention markets on Kalshi. “Yes” trades priced at 50% probability only paid out around 40% of the time, leading to the conclusion that traders generally overpay for those event contracts. These returns are actually worse than Vegas slot machines, according to research by UNLV.

While prediction market apps hit record highs amid traders losing, Diana claims Kalshi users lose less than equities traders or sportsbook bettors. The numbers report 74% of Kalshi traders post losses compared to 81% in equities or 96% in sportsbooks.