Prediction Markets Offer Robust Menu Of NFL Draft Markets

Prediction markets have jumped into the sports pool for a variety of games and events. So, it should come as no surprise that prediction markets are also diving into the 2026 NFL Draft.

Kalshi and Polymarket are both offering NFL Draft props for the April 23-25 event outside Acrisure Stadium, home of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Read on for an overview of NFL Draft prediction market trading.

Prediction Market NFL Draft Props

No. 1 Already Done

Kalshi has an extensive menu of NFL Draft props, closing in on 100 markets. Polymarket has a few dozen, as well.

Generally, most NFL Draft interest is on who will be the No. 1 overall pick. Kalshi has Fernando Mendoza trading at 99% to go No. 1 overall, which translates to odds of a massive -9900. That’s not going to be attractive to even the sharpest trader.

Activity on Mendoza going No. 1 overall has flatlined since mid-January, just before he led the Hoosiers over the Hurricanes in the College Football Playoff National Championship game.

However, this market opened in July, when Mendoza was trading at just 4% (+2400). Since then, the No. 1 overall pick market has seen $1.258 million in volume at Kalshi. Polymarket has seen $1 million in volume on the No. 1 overall pick.

Anyone prescient enough to jump on Mendoza early is in a tremendous position now, or perhaps even already sold out at a substantial profit.

In late October, you could still buy into Mendoza at 18% (+456). But by the time the CFP began on Dec. 19, he was the -163 favorite. On Jan. 20, after the CFP title game, Mendoza was at 90.4% (-942), and he’s since slowly stretched out to 99%.

Basically, the market is saying there is no way Mendoza isn’t drafted No. 1 overall, likely by the Las Vegas Raiders, who currently hold that pick.

Volume vs. Handle

To clarify: Trading volume is not the same as sportsbook handle. Handle represents the amount customers risked on an event. It’s a dollar-for-dollar representation of how much was wagered.

Trading volume captures all matched trades, including a customer buying into a position and subsequently selling out of that position. That may have already occurred numerous times with anyone who bought into Mendoza early and sold out at a much better price.

With NFL Draft props ostensibly being futures markets, handle typically represents 5-20% of trading volume, according to SportTrade COO David Huffman. So, Kalshi’s $1.258 million in volume on the No. 1 overall pick would amount to $62,900 in handle on the low end and $251,600 on the high end.

No. 2 On The Menu, No. 1 With Traders

With no value left in trading on the No. 1 overall pick, the No. 2 overall pick is getting a lot more eyeballs and activity. In fact, in Kalshi’s NFL Draft props market, the No. 2 overall pick now has more volume than No. 1, at $1.33 million.

That’s because it’s actually a close race. Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese is the favorite at 53% (-113), followed closely by Stanford defensive end David Bailey at 49% (+104), six days before the NFL Draft.

NFL Draft odds on the Nos. 3 and 4 picks each have volume approaching $400,000 at Kalshi, and the No. 5 pick is just shy of $300,000.