Masters Winner Prediction Market Clears $250 Million in Volume at Kalshi

Trading on the Masters winner is pulling in big numbers at Kalshi. As of 2:30 p.m. ET Friday, with a few hours still remaining in the second round, volume on the Masters winner market has surpassed $270 million.

No surprise, current co-leader and defending champion Rory McIlroy is getting the most attention. His prediction market price to win the Masters is up to 33 cents, which translates to him being the +203 favorite.

Justin Rose, who lost to McIlroy in a playoff at the 2025 Masters, is the No. 2 choice, but despite trailing by just one shot, Rose is at only 6.8% (+1371). Close behind is Scottie Scheffler, the third choice at 6.4% (+1462).

Kalshi Masters Winner Prediction Market

Volume vs. Handle

While $270 million is an eye-popping number, it also requires clarification between volume and handle. Those two measures are quite different, even more so in futures markets such as the Masters winner, in which customers are often betting on longer shots.

Gaming analyst and newsletter publisher Dustin Gouker co-authored a piece with SportTrade COO David Huffman to provide some clarity.

Handle represents the amount customers bet (or risked) on an event. It’s a dollar-for-dollar representation of how much was wagered. Trading volume captures all matched trades, including a customer buying into a position and subsequently buying out of that position.

For example, if you bought in on McIlroy to win the Masters at 10% (+900), it’s 10 cents in handle, but $1 in trading volume. If you then sold McIlroy on Friday afternoon at 26% (+285), there’s no new handle, but another dollar in trading volume.

Kalshi’s Masters Handle

For golf tournament winner markets, Huffman estimates that handle represents 5-20% of trading volume.

So, with the Masters, $270 million in trades would equate to $13.5 million in handle on the low end, and $54 million on the high end.

Either way, and particularly on the high end, Kalshi’s handle on the Masters winner prediction market is still quite significant. Trading volume and handle show there’s growing interest in trading on prediction markets.

It’ll certainly be interesting to see how trading develops over the next 48 hours on the Masters, especially if there’s an exciting finish with multiple players in the mix on Sunday.