2026 Midterm Election Predictions: Senate, House & Governor Odds

Compare live feeds covering control of Congress, House, and Senate races, governor contests and primary markets across Kalshi and Polymarket. Learn how and where to trade on the upcoming 2026 elections and where traders are pricing the market.

Live forecast

Democrats have a 66% chance of controlling the Senate

13 days to Election Day · consensus across platforms

  • DEM66%
  • REP34%

Democrats52

51 for majority

46Republicans

  • Not up this election
  • No market
  • Tossups count for neither party

Senate races

33

33 senate races priced. States in grey have no listed market yet.

Path to majority

Pick winners in the 6 competitive races to see who gets to 51 Senate seats.

Democrats48

Democrats need 3 of 6 undecided races · Republicans can't reach 51 without a Safe-seat upset

44Republicans

Democrats' tipping point
68% D
In line with control odds (66%)
Republicans' tipping point
25% R
9 pts below control odds (34%)

The seat that wins a majority if a party takes its races from likeliest to least. When markets agree, its odds match the party's odds of control.

  • 57% R
  • 61% R
  • 64% D
  • 68% DTipping point
  • 68% D
  • 69% D

Key races

  • Talarico (D) v. Paxton (R)

    68%32%

  • Jackson (D) v. Collins (R)

    64%36%

  • Brown (D) v. Husted (R)

    68%32%

  • El-Sayed (D) v. Rogers (R)

    69%31%

  • Turek (D) v. Hinson (R)

    43%57%

  • Hamilton (D) v. Marshall (R)

    39%61%

  • Osborn v. Ricketts (R)

    27%73%

  • Acton (D) v. Ramaswamy (R)

    78%22%

  • Hinojosa (D) v. Abbott (R)

    35%65%

  • Ford (D) v. Lombardo (R)

    66%34%

  • Bottoms (D) v. Jackson (R)

    56%44%

  • Janoo (D) v. Scott (R)

    24%76%

Kalshi

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Polymarket

$25bonus

52+ House, Senate, Governor, Individual Race

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All midterm markets

513 markets · Last updated

  • Nov 3, 2027 Senate Lean Democrat

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    James TalaricoD68%69%+4.5%
    Ken PaxtonR33%33%-4.0%

    $35.7M volume $843K 24h

  • Feb 1, 2027 National Safe Democrat

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Democratic PartyD91%91%+0.6%
    Republican PartyR9%9%-0.3%

    $37.9M volume $414K 24h

  • Feb 1, 2027 National

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Democrats sweepD66%65%+1.0%
    D-House, R-Senate27%–

    $10.2M volume $390K 24h

  • Feb 1, 2027 National Lean Democrat

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Democratic PartyD67%66%+2.0%
    Republican PartyR34%34%-2.0%

    $28.1M volume $226K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 Governor Lean Republican

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Greg AbbottR66%66%-6.0%
    Gina HinojosaD35%35%+5.0%

    $3.1M volume $210K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 Senate Lean Democrat

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Sherrod BrownD70%69%+5.0%
    Jon HustedR32%33%-4.0%

    $14.1M volume $188K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 Governor Safe Democrat

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Amy ActonD78%78%+2.0%
    Vivek RamaswamyR23%23%-2.0%

    $3.6M volume $180K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 Governor Lean Democrat

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Keisha Lance BottomsD56%56%+5.0%
    Rick JacksonR45%45%-5.0%

    $6.6M volume $158K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 Senate Safe Democrat

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Peggy FlanaganD87%87%-1.0%
    Michele TafoyaR14%13%+1.0%

    $2.7M volume $154K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 Senate Lean Democrat

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Abdul El-SayedD69%69%-0.5%
    Mike RogersR32%32%

    $10M volume $137K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 Senate Safe Republican

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Pete RickettsR73%75%+1.0%
    Dan Osborn28%26%

    $1.9M volume $119K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 Senate Lean Democrat

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Troy JacksonD65%65%+1.0%
    Susan CollinsR36%37%-1.0%

    $10.8M volume $88K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 Senate Lean Republican

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Roger MarshallR62%63%+1.0%
    Adam HamiltonD39%40%-1.0%

    $2.5M volume $68K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 Governor Safe Democrat

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Kathy HochulD95%94%
    Bruce BlakemanR5%6%-0.3%

    $2.6M volume $68K 24h

  • Feb 1, 2027 National

    OutcomeKalshi24h
    Above 5239%+1.0%
    5223%+1.5%

    $1.1M volume $65K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 Governor Safe Republican

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Byron DonaldsR78%79%-2.0%
    David JollyD23%22%+1.0%

    $3.3M volume $58K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 Senate Safe Republican

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Darline GrahamR84%83%+1.5%
    Annie AndrewsD17%18%-0.5%

    $1.9M volume $56K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 Senate Safe Republican

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Ashley MoodyR89%89%-2.1%
    Angie NixonD12%13%+1.9%

    $1.2M volume $42K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 Senate Lean Republican

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Ashley HinsonR57%59%-1.0%
    Josh TurekD43%44%-1.0%

    $17.8M volume $39K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 House Safe Democrat

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Bobby PulidoD88%89%+2.0%
    Monica De La CruzR13%12%-2.0%

    $2M volume $37K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 Governor Lean Democrat

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Aaron FordD66%66%+8.0%
    Joe LombardoR34%35%-9.0%

    $2.5M volume $34K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 House Safe Democrat

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Jared MoskowitzD89%89%
    Scott SingerR11%10%+0.7%

    $286K volume $26K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 House Safe Democrat

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    JoAnna MendozaD89%89%+4.5%
    Juan CiscomaniR11%12%-5.0%

    $64K volume $23K 24h

  • Nov 3, 2027 House Lean Democrat

    OutcomeKalshiPolymarket24h
    Kathy CastorD70%69%+1.0%
    Mike BeltranR31%34%-0.5%

    $499K volume $22K 24h